How should the Chiefs begin their offseason spending?
Free agency is about to unofficially begin. How should the Chiefs spend their salary cap space to stabilize their roster before the NFL Draft?
If you’ve been following my Kansas City Chiefs coverage for any amount of time, you may be shocked to read the words I am about to write.
This is tough. My brand will be questioned. My intelligence slandered. Your faith in me, shaken.
…Are you sure you’re ready? Make sure you’re sitting down. Have you subscribed to this newsletter, by the way?
Enough stalling. Here it goes.
I think the Chiefs should probably pay real money to a running back in free agency.
…Oh good, you’re still here!
Look, I haven’t forgotten my roots; I still don’t want the Chiefs to draft a running back early in the 2026 NFL Draft, but I would like to see something between excellence and competence out of the backfield next season, and it appears to be a remarkably thin running back class after probable top-10 pick Jeremiyah Love.
Using Spotrac’s estimates for average annual contract value, I’d be alright with giving Breece Hall a three-year deal that’s functionally a two-year deal with $20-ish million guaranteed. Travis Etienne for a similar structure at $7 million AAV? That’s fine too.
Ultimately, after years of market correction, your dollar goes further at running back than it does at other positions, particularly at wide receiver or defensive end.
Curious which defensive ends can be snagged in the $7 million range (again, per Spotrac)? How about 36-year-old Cam Jordan? Al-Quadin Muhammad? Arden Key? A.J. Epenesa? One wide receiver fits that estimated price tag: Keenan Allen, entering his age-34 season.
Even as a running back-Moneyballer, I think I’d make the case that Etienne would give you the biggest bang for your seven million bucks.
You can also run that math through the draft.
As Sterling Holmes and I discussed on Arrowhead Addict this week (every Tuesday at 3 p.m. CT!), the No. 9 overall pick will make $31 million through their first four years in the league. If Love is the pick at No. 9, his $31 million guaranteed would be the third-most for an NFL running back, behind Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty. A $7.75 million average annual value isn’t bad if Love is great-to-excellent, but the guaranteed numbers are an interesting way of viewing the best path forward.
$31 million guaranteed for a defensive end would currently land a rookie as the 27th highest-guaranteed EDGE. A $31 million receiver would land around 25th.
To be clear, total guaranteed money is not the best way to judge entire contracts, but I think it serves as a useful exercise. If the Chiefs could sign Hall for a bit more cash or Etienne for a bit less (and a lot less guaranteed), I’d rather improve the running back room that way, leaving No. 9 open for your choice of defensive lineman or wide receiver — two high-value positions that the Chiefs desperately need to reinforce.
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